Structural conditions do not currently support growth. Stronger alternatives exist.
VERDICT
AVOID
Elevated Risk
DEMAND
60 buyers/listing
Strong↑
LIQUIDITY
24d DOM
Neutral→
AFFORDABILITY
30.0% vs 5yr
Weak↓
GROWTH OUTLOOK
Weak
Weak↓
YIELD
3.8%
Neutral→
SUPPLY PRESSURE
0.5% vacancy
Strong↑
#56/74WeakStructure 27Stall warning$1.14M
Atlaso rates Warners Bay houses as AVOID. Only 14% of AVOID-rated suburbs achieved more than 8% growth. Stronger alternatives are likely available in Newcastle.
At $1.14M, Warners Bay ranks #56 of 74 houses in Newcastle. The long-term structural outlook is Weak. Properties sell in just 24 days, reflecting urgent buyer demand.
OPPORTUNITY ENGINE
Structural opportunity remains selective at this price level.
5 stronger-positioned houses identified in Newcastle.
BalancedNo strong buyer or seller advantage right now.
+5.5%
Asking Prices (3mo)
+13.1%
Rents (12mo)
0.4%
Vacancy ↓
56%
Fresh Stock (<30d)
House Asking Prices (12 months)
$1.45M
House Weekly Rents (12 months)
$881/wk
Vacancy Rate (24 months)
--- 1.5% tight--- 3.0% loose
Listing Age (12 months)
Fresh (<30d)30-60d60-90d90-180d180d+
Data for postcode 2282.
Momentum Health
Stall warning
94% stall probability
Warners Bay shows a high probability of momentum stalling within 12 months. The current 84.3% growth rate is unlikely to sustain. Owners should consider locking in gains.
STALL RISK94%
Suburb Profile
Warners Bay at a Glance
SEIFA Index
8/10
Most advantaged
Household Income
$1,825/wk
Median household
Median Age
45
Years
Mortgage Stress
27%
of income
Population Growth
+0.3%
vs state +1.4%
Ownership Mix
43.2%owned35.0%mortgage20.1%renting
Demographic Trends
Warners Bay Over Time
Median Household Income (Census)
Population Growth Rate (Census)
Dwelling Composition (Census)
Rental Yield History
Census data: ABS. Yield series: weekly market data.
Full Warners Bay Analysis
Access the full structural analysis, fair value estimate, bedroom-level pricing, and supply intelligence.
3-Year Structural OutlookStrong
Conviction LevelHigh
Fair Value GapX.X% undervalued
3-Bed House Price$X,XXX,XXX
Gross YieldX.X%
Weekly Rent$XXX
SEIFA DecileX/10
Building ApprovalsXX dwellings
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Atlaso rates Warners Bay as AVOID confidence for capital growth. In our out-of-sample testing, 90% of our STRONG BUY suburbs grew more than 8% annually. Our model analyses price trends, volume, demographics, and market conditions across Warners Bay and 46 Australian cities to generate this rating.
What is the median house price in Warners Bay?
The current median house price in Warners Bay, nsw is $1.14M, with annual growth of +0.9%. Properties sell in approximately 24 days.
How fast do properties sell in Warners Bay?
Properties in Warners Bay sell in 24 days on average. The market is currently rated Weak. This is faster than the national average, indicating strong buyer demand.
What is the growth outlook for Warners Bay?
Atlaso's model analyses 23 structural signals including price history, volume trends, yields, and vacancy to rate Warners Bay's growth potential. The model predicts whether a suburb is likely to outperform, not by how much. Our ratings have been validated across 46 Australian cities, with 90% of top-rated suburbs growing more than 8% a year.
What is the rental yield in Warners Bay?
The gross rental yield for houses in Warners Bay is 3.8%. This is in line with the broader market average.
Important: Atlaso provides general research information only and does not constitute personal financial advice, property advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any property. Suburb scores, growth ratings, rental yield estimates, and market signals are based on quantitative models using historical data. They are not guarantees of future performance. Property values can fall as well as rise. You should seek independent licensed financial and property advice before making any investment decision. Atlaso Pty Ltd (ABN 84 696 036 469) is not a licensed financial adviser and does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL).