Atlaso rates Nelson Bay houses as HOLD. Average growth outlook. Vacancy remains tight at 1.09%, but conviction is not high enough for a BUY rating. Better houses options may be available in Newcastle.
At $1.08M, Nelson Bay ranks #32 of 74 houses in Newcastle. The long-term structural outlook is Below average. Short-term momentum is accelerating.
OPPORTUNITY ENGINE
Structural opportunity remains selective at this price level.
5 stronger-positioned houses identified in Newcastle.
Shifting to BuyersEarly signs of easing. Monitor for entry.
-4.4%
Asking Prices (3mo)
+8.6%
Rents (12mo)
1.7%
Vacancy ↓
33%
Fresh Stock (<30d)
House Asking Prices (12 months)
$1.28M
House Weekly Rents (12 months)
$721/wk
Vacancy Rate (24 months)
--- 1.5% tight--- 3.0% loose
Listing Age (12 months)
Fresh (<30d)30-60d60-90d90-180d180d+
Data for postcode 2315.
Momentum Health
Monitor
44% stall probability
Nelson Bay is growing at 19.7% annually but early warning signals are appearing. Watch for vacancy loosening or yield compression over the next quarter.
STALL RISK44%
Suburb Profile
Nelson Bay at a Glance
SEIFA Index
6/10
Above average
Household Income
$1,310/wk
Median household
Median Age
54
Years
Mortgage Stress
33%
of income (stressed)
Population Growth
+0.3%
vs state +1.4%
Ownership Mix
41.9%owned25.8%mortgage29.4%renting
Demographic Trends
Nelson Bay Over Time
Median Household Income (Census)
Population Growth Rate (Census)
Dwelling Composition (Census)
Rental Yield History
Census data: ABS. Yield series: weekly market data.
Full Nelson Bay Analysis
Access the full structural analysis, fair value estimate, bedroom-level pricing, and supply intelligence.
3-Year Structural OutlookStrong
Conviction LevelHigh
Fair Value GapX.X% undervalued
3-Bed House Price$X,XXX,XXX
Gross YieldX.X%
Weekly Rent$XXX
SEIFA DecileX/10
Building ApprovalsXX dwellings
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Atlaso rates Nelson Bay as HOLD confidence for capital growth. In our out-of-sample testing, 90% of our STRONG BUY suburbs grew more than 8% annually. Our model analyses price trends, volume, demographics, and market conditions across Nelson Bay and 46 Australian cities to generate this rating.
What is the median house price in Nelson Bay?
The current median house price in Nelson Bay, nsw is $1.08M, with annual growth of +7.6%. Properties sell in approximately 44 days.
How fast do properties sell in Nelson Bay?
Properties in Nelson Bay sell in 44 days on average. The market is currently rated Below average. This is in line with the broader market.
What is the growth outlook for Nelson Bay?
Atlaso's model analyses 23 structural signals including price history, volume trends, yields, and vacancy to rate Nelson Bay's growth potential. The model predicts whether a suburb is likely to outperform, not by how much. Our ratings have been validated across 46 Australian cities, with 90% of top-rated suburbs growing more than 8% a year.
What is the rental yield in Nelson Bay?
The gross rental yield for houses in Nelson Bay is 3.5%. This is in line with the broader market average.
Important: Atlaso provides general research information only and does not constitute personal financial advice, property advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any property. Suburb scores, growth ratings, rental yield estimates, and market signals are based on quantitative models using historical data. They are not guarantees of future performance. Property values can fall as well as rise. You should seek independent licensed financial and property advice before making any investment decision. Atlaso Pty Ltd (ABN 84 696 036 469) is not a licensed financial adviser and does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL).