Rental supply is extremely tight while prices are accelerating. This structural imbalance favours continued growth.
VERDICT
BUY
Supply Constrained Growth
DEMAND
81 buyers/listing
Strong↑
LIQUIDITY
21d DOM
Neutral→
AFFORDABILITY
30.0% vs 5yr
Weak↓
GROWTH OUTLOOK
Average
Neutral→
YIELD
3.9%
Neutral→
SUPPLY PRESSURE
0.2% vacancy
Strong↑
#64/136AverageStructure 84Monitor$831K
Atlaso rates Noarlunga Downs houses as BUY for capital growth. Vacancy is extremely tight at 0.25%, well below the 2.5% equilibrium. 66% of BUY-rated suburbs grew more than 8% in our validated testing.
At $831K, Noarlunga Downs ranks #64 of 136 houses in Adelaide. The long-term structural outlook is Average. Properties sell in just 21 days, reflecting urgent buyer demand.
OPPORTUNITY ENGINE
Structural opportunity remains selective at this price level.
5 stronger-positioned houses identified in Adelaide.
Shifting to BuyersEarly signs of easing. Monitor for entry.
-0.8%
Asking Prices (3mo)
+4.7%
Rents (12mo)
0.0%
Vacancy ↓
56%
Fresh Stock (<30d)
House Asking Prices (12 months)
$847K
House Weekly Rents (12 months)
$596/wk
Vacancy Rate (24 months)
--- 1.5% tight--- 3.0% loose
Listing Age (12 months)
Fresh (<30d)30-60d60-90d90-180d180d+
Data for postcode 5168.
Momentum Health
Monitor
36% stall probability
Noarlunga Downs is growing at 18.0% annually but early warning signals are appearing. Watch for vacancy loosening or yield compression over the next quarter.
STALL RISK36%
Suburb Profile
Noarlunga Downs at a Glance
SEIFA Index
2/10
Below average
Household Income
$1,250/wk
Median household
Median Age
40
Years
Mortgage Stress
25%
of income
Population Growth
+2.3%
vs state +1.3%
Ownership Mix
18.0%owned40.6%mortgage38.5%renting
Demographic Trends
Noarlunga Downs Over Time
Median Household Income (Census)
Population Growth Rate (Census)
Dwelling Composition (Census)
Rental Yield History
Census data: ABS. Yield series: weekly market data.
Full Noarlunga Downs Analysis
Access the full structural analysis, fair value estimate, bedroom-level pricing, and supply intelligence.
3-Year Structural OutlookStrong
Conviction LevelHigh
Fair Value GapX.X% undervalued
3-Bed House Price$X,XXX,XXX
Gross YieldX.X%
Weekly Rent$XXX
SEIFA DecileX/10
Building ApprovalsXX dwellings
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Atlaso rates Noarlunga Downs as BUY confidence for capital growth. In our out-of-sample testing, 90% of our STRONG BUY suburbs grew more than 8% annually. Our model analyses price trends, volume, demographics, and market conditions across Noarlunga Downs and 46 Australian cities to generate this rating.
What is the median house price in Noarlunga Downs?
The current median house price in Noarlunga Downs, sa is $831K, with annual growth of +9.4%. Properties sell in approximately 21 days.
How fast do properties sell in Noarlunga Downs?
Properties in Noarlunga Downs sell in 21 days on average. The market is currently rated Average. This is faster than the national average, indicating strong buyer demand.
What is the growth outlook for Noarlunga Downs?
Atlaso's model analyses 23 structural signals including price history, volume trends, yields, and vacancy to rate Noarlunga Downs's growth potential. The model predicts whether a suburb is likely to outperform, not by how much. Our ratings have been validated across 46 Australian cities, with 90% of top-rated suburbs growing more than 8% a year.
What is the rental yield in Noarlunga Downs?
The gross rental yield for houses in Noarlunga Downs is 3.9%. This is in line with the broader market average.
Important: Atlaso provides general research information only and does not constitute personal financial advice, property advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any property. Suburb scores, growth ratings, rental yield estimates, and market signals are based on quantitative models using historical data. They are not guarantees of future performance. Property values can fall as well as rise. You should seek independent licensed financial and property advice before making any investment decision. Atlaso Pty Ltd (ABN 84 696 036 469) is not a licensed financial adviser and does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL).